Why students will pay more after 2026

Hi there,

This is Chubby Wallet. The newsletter that teaches you how to profit from property trends before they go mainstream..

Here's what’s in store..

• General market update

• The London supply shortage no one is talking about

• How renters' rights bill will disrupt student lettings

• How Rita-Rose Gagné went from Montreal lawyer to Britain's retail real estate queen

Everyone "knows" that building more homes will solve the housing crisis. Politicians promise it, economists preach it, housing activists demand it.

But we're building more homes than we have in years, yet prices aren't falling.

We have 10% more stock than a normal market and 25% more price reductions than average—yet buyers still can't afford what's on offer.

The numbers don't lie

• New listings: 41,300 per week (6% above last year)

• Price reductions: 27,200 weekly (26% above 5-year average)

• Sales agreed: 28,900 (up 9% year-on-year)

Seeing these numbers, most would predict falling prices. 

Instead, we're seeing what Chris Watkin calls:

The problem isn't supply—it's quality supply at realistic prices.

The asking price delusion

Rightmove's latest "asking price record" hit £379,517—so far ahead of actual sales data that it reveals the core issue: systematic overvaluation by estate agents chasing instructions.

As one industry insider puts it:

The real issue

• Savills forecast: 840,000 completions over five years vs Labour's 1.5 million target

• Housing association reality: 80% of rental income goes to maintenance and management alone

When your operating costs eat four-fifths of revenue, you can't finance new builds without grants...

And grant funding collapsed from covering 75% of building costs in 1990 to just 12% today…

What actually works

While everyone debates grand strategies, Darren Rodwell's Barking and Dagenham quietly built 8% of all England's council homes in 2023/24 using their community rent model. 

The secret? Flexible rents that rise with tenant incomes.

Meanwhile, in 2017, the government announced that Five "garden towns" would be financed with a £44 billion housing commitment.

Nearly eight years later, not one has broken ground.

Takeaways

• Buyers: Focus on areas with realistic price-to-income ratios

• Sellers: Price realistically from day one—"testing the market" is dead

• Investors: Look for yield in undervalued northern cities

Believing London is "dying" because of the weak resi market is like judging a restaurant's success by the complaints at one table while ignoring the packed dining room.

The real story is happening where the money actually flows

Here's a snapshot of what’s happening in London's office market:

Grade A office space demand hit 2.13 million sq ft across 125 deals in Q1 2025.

That's not a dead market – that's a market so hot it's running out of inventory.

The supply shortage

London's commercial market is facing a genuine supply crisis. According to Cushman & Wakefield:

Translation: London isn't dying. It's poised for massive growth in the office sector

Knight Frank adds the kicker – corporate relocation enquiries were 8% higher than last year in April:

Meanwhile, British Land just reported underlying profit of £279m with:

• 98% occupancy across their portfolio

• Campus occupancy at 97%

• Retail at 99%.

This is a supply-constrained market where real demand meets artificial scarcity.

Takeaways

If You're Buying Residential:

• Ignore website averages

• Talk to agents directly

• Look for properties on market 6+ months

• Focus on off-market opportunities

• Be patient and selective but stay active

If You're selling:

• Price realistically from day one

• Learn from commercial markets

• Remember: 33% of agents lose overpriced instructions

If You're Investing:

• Follow the corporate money – office demand drives residential rental demand

• Supply constraints are real in both commercial and residential markets

• Study rental yields in micro markets

The Renters' Rights Bill is about to flip the student housing playbook upside down. Here's what savvy landlords need to know before the music stops.

Rita-Rose Gagné had it made. Senior lawyer at Fasken and respect across Montreal's elite.

Then she looked at real estate returns and thought:

So she pivoted.

The Training Ground

2006: Rita-Rose joined Ivanhoé Cambridge. By the time she became President of Growth Markets, she was managing $8 billion in assets across Asia and Latin America.

While most people struggled to buy their first rental, Rita-Rose closed deals from Singapore to São Paulo.

The perfect storm

November 2020. Pandemic chaos. Retail "dying." Shopping centers written off as extinct.

Rita-Rose took the CEO chair at Hammerson—one of Britain's largest real estate trusts.

While competitors panic-sold, she played chess. She acquired Westquay in Southampton. Sold dead weight.

She repositioned the entire portfolio around prime urban assets.

The secret weapon

Her legal background was her superpower. Lawyers think in systems, see connections others miss.

She transformed Hammerson with precision:

• Tech integration that made shopping centers smart

• Sustainability as core strategy, not afterthought

• Portfolio optimization—every asset earned its place

The Playbook

• Leverage your background - Previous skills become competitive advantage

• Think contrarian - Best opportunities hide in problems

• Create accountability - Public goals and deadlines forge excellence

•  Master portfolio thinking - Individual deals matter, but systems create wealth

That's it for this week folks. Each week we'll cover strategies, updates and insights to help you succeed in real estate. We love this stuff!

If you Have questions or just want to chat, We want to hear it.

See you next time in your inbox!

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