Unsold housing stock hits 10 year high

Hi there,

This is Chubby Wallet. The newsletter that relays to you the most talked about stories in property..

Here's what’s in store..

• General market update

• Older homeowners sitting on £trillions in property wealth

• How to select tenants in the era of renters reform act

• How 2 ex carpet tradesmen built a £24b empire

In this brief market update, we’ll break down what’s happening with UK property and what it could mean for you moving forward:

• Listings boom: it's the earliest time in a decade we've crossed 550,000 listings. That’s 8% more than 2024 YTD, and 9% ahead of the pre-pandemic average.

• Price cuts climbing: 13.4% of listings were reduced last week — up from 12.1% last year, and above the 5-year average of 10.6%. Translation? Sellers are blinking first.

• Sales still strong: 24,500 properties went SSTC (Sold Subject to Contract) over Easter — 13% higher than 2024 YTD, and 20% better than pre-Covid norms.

• Fall-throughs manageable: At 23.7%, they’re under the 7-year average — meaning the deals are mostly sticking.

Takeaway: More stock. More cuts. But also more sales. Buyers have choices, sellers are sweating a bit, and yet deals are still happening...

As property data guru Christopher Watkin summed it up:

Confidence crisis & rate cut bets

Below are a few headline stats showing the mood of the economy:

• Manufacturing PMI: 44.0 (below 50 = recession territory)

• Services PMI: 48.9 (first contraction in over 2 years)

• New Export Orders: Worst drop since May 2020 (yes, that 2020)

S&P’s Chief Economist warned:

Add in the shock from new National Insurance costs and you've got a sharp cocktail of reasons for policymakers to start cutting rates.

Gilt yields & swaps

5-Year Gilt: Opened at 4.046%, closed at 3.975% (first sub-4% close in 6 months)

5-Year SONIA Swap: 3.641% (down from 4%+ a year ago)

Translation: Markets are basically 100% pricing in a 0.25% Bank of England rate cut at the next meeting — but remember, when markets get too confident, reality tends to crash the party.

Rents and house prices

• Private Rents: Up 7.7% YoY (down slightly from 8.1% in Feb)

• House Prices: Up 5.4% YoY (first >5% annual rise in a while)

Regional Leaders

• North West: +8% house prices

• North East: +7.9%

• London: +1.7% (last place, again)

Meanwhile, rent growth crowned a new champion: the North East at 9.4%, edging out London’s 9.1%.

Big picture: Yields are still climbing, but rent inflation is cooling slightly — a healthier trend if you like your markets "mostly stable" rather than "completely bonkers."

Final thoughts

The economy is struggling right now...

But It keeps going while every headline suggests that it should have broken down already.

Property investors should be:

• Locking in mortgage rates if you can.

• Watching for another PMI slide next month (confirmation of slowdown = serious trouble).

• Expecting gilts and swaps to stay volatile as the US circus ramps up.

Boomers and older Gen Xers rode the wave of 20th-century property booms, often buying before prices exploded and paying off mortgages long ago according to a report from Savills.

Many then leveraged that equity into buy-to-let portfolios, doubling down on property as both shelter and investment.

The result?

A system where younger buyers face record-high mortgage costs, rising rents, and intense competition — often from older cash buyers with built-in equity advantages.

Bank of mum and dad is an Institution

Parental support is no longer a bonus — it’s a requirement.

The intergenerational wealth machine is now doing what banks won’t: providing capital to first-time buyers who are otherwise locked out.

But there's a catch: this is highly unevenly distributed. If your parents don't have property wealth, you’re locked out twice.

Landlords are retiring

With many landlords over 55 and approaching retirement, rising regulation and reduced tax incentives could create an exodus of rental supply just as demand peaks.

Policymakers risk triggering a self-inflicted housing crunch by treating landlords as the enemy — without a viable replacement for private rental provision.

What happens when £4.7 trillion starts to move?

If even a small fraction of over-50s start downsizing, gifting equity, or liquidating rental stock, it could reshape everything from housing affordability to the financial advisory industry. 

The question is no longer if that money will move — it’s when and how.

How to select good tenants

• Affordability (Non-Negotiable) Think of rent as a "fixed energy cost" the tenant must expend monthly. If they lack the power (income) consistently, system failure is inevitable. Below are some rules to follow:

  • Baseline income must be at least 2.5x monthly rent.

  • Get recent pay slips + employer letter.

  • Retired: pension statements.

  • If they’re sell-employed, ask for 3 months bank statements + last tax return.

  • If on benefits, ensure they have universal credit awards + savings evidence.

  • Check they have 3x rent sitting in their bank account for the prior 6 months if relying on savings.

  • Rent Guarantee Insurance companies will require this evidence — so mirror their risk standards even if you’re not taking out a policy.

• Track record of paying rent: Past behaviour is the best predictor of future behaviour

  • Get References: Ask for landlord references and open banking reports.

  • Open Banking: Authorised access to 12 months' bank transactions showing rent payments.

  • Bank Statements: Spot missed payments, overdrafts, or suspicious activity yourself.

• Job situation: stable income is a must

  • Check for full-time, permanent roles avoid zero-hour or probationary contracts.

  • Red flags: Recent job changes, probation periods, temporary gigs.

  • Check LinkedIn: Validate career stability and trajectory.

  • Review employment contracts: Understand notice periods and probation clauses.

• Landlord references: current landlords might lie to get rid of bad tenants. Previous landlords have no incentive to lie.

  • Always get both current and previous landlord references if possible.

  • Speak to landlords directly — not just rely on written references (pauses and tone reveal a lot).

  • Treat vague or rushed references as red flags.

• Credit check: provides three critical layers:

  • Credit score: Predicts likelihood of paying rent.

  • Fraud check: Verifies identity, linked addresses, financial behaviour.

  • Debt check: County Court Judgments (CCJs), bankruptcies, Individual Voluntary Arrangements (IVAs).

  • Cross-reference reported addresses with tenancy history for inconsistencies.

• Social media and google checks: This is free intelligence. Not checking it would be negligent. Look for:

  • Evidence of antisocial behaviour.

  • Frequent moving, instability.

  • Public rants, conflicts, or financial irresponsibility.

  • Aggressive, hostile online personas, or lifestyle signaling financial overextension.

• Trust Your gut, check the following:

  • Are they punctual and polite?

  • Are they transparent or evasive?

  • Would you want them as your neighbour?

From humble beginnings as carpet and metal traders, David and Simon Reuben built a £24.9 billion property empire through strategic vision and perfect timing.

Starting in carpets and scrap metals

The brothers made their first property investments with profits from Simon's revived carpet business.

Their true catalyst came from an unexpected direction—the post-Soviet Russian metals market, where their company Trans-World grew to $8 billion in annual sales before they executed an exit in 2000 to focus entirely on UK real estate.

Building the empire

Their portfolio quickly grew to include London landmarks like Millbank Tower and Berkeley Square properties.

They didn't just buy buildings—they created interconnected ecosystems across commercial, retail, and hospitality sectors.

Their 1.8 million square foot Merchant Square development exemplifies their district transformation approach.

Challenges

Through political battles and economic downturns, the Reubens remained adaptable—diversifying into data centers, mining, and even racecourses when traditional markets faltered.

The method

Their success offers clear lessons: transform assets rather than merely acquiring them; diversify strategically; master exit timing; build compounding knowledge across ventures; and extend business vision through philanthropy.

From carpet salesmen to property kingpins, the Reubens proved that empires aren't inherited—they're built through methodical strategy and execution.

That's it for this week folks. Each week we'll cover strategies, updates and insights to help you succeed in real estate. We love this stuff!

If you Have questions or just want to chat, We want to hear it.

See you next time in your inbox!

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