Property predictions for 2026..

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This is Chubby Wallet. The newsletter hooking you up with expert predictions to help you navigate 2026

Here's what we’ve got for you today..

• ✍ 8 property predictions for 2026 (according to experts)

Outlook for 2026

The outlook ahead points to lower borrowing costs, slow but positive house price growth overall, and a relatively weak London market..

Expert predictions

1. Interest rates and lending

Base rates are expected to edge down through 2026, but not return to the ultra-cheap era of 2010–2021. Property loans will remain meaningfully more expensive, and banks are expected to keep lending standards tight rather than compete aggressively on risk (Bank of England forward guidance; Reuters macro surveys; Savills UK Cross-Sector Outlook).

2. Build costs versus running costs

Construction output remains weak and build costs high, making many new schemes unviable. As a result, capital will flow into refurbishments and reuse rather than ground-up development. (Savills Development Viability research; UK Construction PMI via The Guardian).

3. Rental growth

The renters reform act means a number of small, private landlords are exiting the market, while Build To Rent supply is growing, but too slowly to replace lost homes. The net effect is tighter rental supply and continued upward pressure on rents (Renters Reform Bill commentary; Savills Residential Policy Briefings; Institute for Fiscal Studies).

4. Population and regional trends

London is expected to be weak on price growth but remain highly liquid. Northern England, parts of Scotland, and Wales are forecast to outperform on rental growth and yields. Migration, not birth rates, is the main driver of demand (ONS migration data; Rightmove regional forecasts; Savills Residential Outlook).

5. Commercial property

Pension funds and insurers are expected to increase selective investment into UK commercial real estate in 2026, focusing on stable, income-generating assets such as prime logistics, retail parks, and ESG-compliant properties, treating the market more as a reliable yield play (Savills Capital Flows Outlook; CBRE Investor Intentions Survey).

6. Office to residential or mixed use

Financial viability will remain narrow for office to resi conversions, due to planning hurdles, unsuitable layouts, high build costs, and incoming stricter EPC standards from late 2026. Opportunities will be concentrated in newer centrally located offices suitable for repurposing.(Savills Office Repurposing studies; British Property Federation).

7. Alternative sectors

Retail parks are poised to continue outperforming traditional shopping centres, benefiting from low vacancy and resilient consumer spending. Logistics will show strong resilience driven by e-commerce and supply-chain demand, while student housing (PBSA) and later-living sectors will attract growing institutional interest as operational assets. (Colliers Retail Outlook; Savills Logistics and PBSA research)

8. Energy standards and funding

Non-compliant or low-EPC properties are likely to face down valuations under the incoming EPC framework rolling out in late 2026. Compliant, sustainable buildings are forecast to command premiums and access to cheaper capital (MSCI ESG Real Estate research; Savills ESG valuation studies).

Tycoon time

Derek Quinlan, a former tax inspector turned real estate tycoon, built a multi-billion euro property empire by strategically leveraging high-net-worth capital.

Through his firm, Quinlan Private, he executed landmark deals, acquiring prestigious assets like The Savoy Group, Wentworth Golf Club, and Knightsbridge Estate. 

His aggressive expansion into European and U.S. markets saw him orchestrate high-profile acquisitions, including 25 Canada Square and the Madrid headquarters of Banco Santander.

However, the 2008 financial crisis exposed his heavy reliance on debt, leading to liquidity issues and the loss of key assets.

Despite setbacks, Quinlan's ability to identify prime investments and structure complex deals remains a case study in high-stakes real estate investing.

THAT’S A WRAP

That's it for this week folks. Each week we’ll cover strategies, updates and insights to help you succeed in real estate. We love this stuff! 

If you Have questions or just want to chat, We want to hear it. 

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