Prices are 42% above average in these London boroughs

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This is Chubby Wallet. The newsletter that teaches you how to profit from property trends before they go mainstream..

Here's what’s in store..

• General market update

• Homes near top-rated schools are outpacing the wider market

• What you need to know about the upcoming Landlord database

• How this ex accountant built London’s most expensive development

If you feel like the housing market is stuck in slow motion, you’re not wrong.

The latest week’s numbers from Chris Watkin show the UK property market cruising in “sideways” gear—plenty happening, but little real acceleration.

Supply & demand dynamics

• Listings: 33.7k homes hit the market last week—slightly up on last year (+4.1% YTD) and still 12.6% above the 9-year average. That’s healthy, but we’re listing more than we’re selling, meaning the withdrawal rate is one to watch.

• Price Reductions: At 14.1% of stock in July, reductions are running 33% above the 5-year average. Translation? More choice for buyers and leverage to negotiate. One in seven homes sees a price cut each month—nearly 100,000 reductions monthly.

Sales activity

• SSTCs: 26.9k properties agreed sales last week, up 7.5% YoY and still close to 2022’s “hot” market pace.

• Prices on SSTCs: £344.78/sqft in July, 1.97% higher than last year but slipping slightly from June. Expect around 2–2.5% annual price growth—under inflation, but still in positive territory.

Broader economic picture

• Interest Rates: The Bank of England’s 0.25% cut to 4% barely moved mortgage rates. Markets were spooked by the close 5–4 vote, which makes future cuts look less certain before early 2026.

• Inflation & Growth: CPI is expected to tick up to ~4% in September before easing. GDP growth is struggling along at 0.1–0.2% per quarter—think “treacle economy” rather than recession.

• Construction: Activity saw its sharpest drop in over 5 years, particularly in housing projects, thanks partly to policy roadblocks like the Building Safety Act.

Affordability & demographics

Halifax’s latest index shows a +0.4% monthly price rise, with annual growth at 2.4%. Affordability is improving modestly, especially for those remortgaging from 2-year fixes.

Renters now spend 29% of gross income on rent (up from 26.4% in Jan 2023), putting nearly half in the “unaffordable” bracket by ONS standards.

What’s next?

Expect August to stay muted—school holidays, sticky stock levels, and cautious sentiment.

September’s “second wind” could bring a burst of activity, but with so much inventory, price realism will be key.

Buyers should keep hunting; sellers should listen to the market (and their agents)

According to Santander, properties in the catchment areas of the UK’s top 50 primary and secondary schools average £538,490—that’s 42% higher than the national average asking price of £379,517.

David Morris, Head of Homes at Santander, says it’s all about parental priorities:

Three-quarters of parents would now pay extra to be in a good catchment (up 11% from last year).

The average premium? 15%, or about £57,000 more on a £380k property. One in 10 parents would stretch to 25%+.

Impact of VAT on school fees

The recent VAT on private school fees has added fuel. Adam Stiles, MD at Helix Financial Partners, warns it’s already reshaping demand:

Santander’s survey suggests 21% of private-school parents plan to move their children to state education, with two-thirds willing to relocate to secure a strong catchment.

Hotspots to watch

The biggest premiums are showing up in:

• London boroughs: Sutton, Kingston upon Thames, Richmond upon Thames, Barnet, Kensington & Chelsea, Harrow, Wandsworth, Redbridge.

• Commuter and grammar counties: Trafford (Greater Manchester), Buckinghamshire, Kent, Hertfordshire.

Michelle Lawson, Director at Lawson Financial, calls it:

The Road ahead

Without more housing supply or a shift in education policy, these premiums are likely to stick.

Any fall in mortgage rates or expansion of high-LTV lending could increase competition further.

• For buyers: Act early in the school application cycle, be mortgage-ready, and consider “just outside” catchment areas for better value.

• For sellers: Market the educational advantage clearly—Ofsted ratings, walking distances, and transport links all help.

• For investors: Family homes and two- to three-bed rentals in sought-after catchments can deliver strong, consistent yields with low vacancy risk. September renewal cycles are especially sticky, and demand from relocating families can push rents higher than the wider market.

In these postcodes, you’re buying access. And right now, that’s a hot commodity.

The landscape for UK landlords is evolving. Under the Renters’ Rights Bill, the government plans to establish a central database of all landlords.

The stated goal is to improve transparency, raise property standards, and protect tenants—but it comes with new obligations for property owners.

Key details of the legislation

Landlords may be required to pay £46 per year to be included in the database.

While this may appear modest, combined with selective licensing fees—ranging from £600 to £1,000 in some councils—and likely insurance increases, the overall financial impact is significant.

Compliance considerations

For landlords, remaining compliant requires careful planning:

• Budget for all fees and potential insurance increases – Factor in database registration, selective licensing, and regulatory compliance costs.

• Maintain thorough records – Accurate documentation of rent payments, property condition, and tenancy agreements will help mitigate risk.

• Monitor regulatory updates – Stay informed through council notices, professional networks, and legal updates.

• Seek professional advice when necessary – Particularly for complex issues like eviction changes, legal guidance is essential.

Enforcement and risks

The proposed database also introduces dedicated enforcement officers, with one officer potentially responsible for every 1,000 properties.

This may result in increased monitoring and penalties for non-compliance, even for minor infractions.

Fines could reach £10,000 for smaller violations or up to £40,000 for major breaches.

The potential outcome?

A reduction in rental stock as some landlords exit the market, which could drive rental prices higher.

Conversely, landlords who adopt efficient compliance practices may gain a competitive advantage in a more regulated environment.

Looking forward

Market catalysts—including interest rates, government housing policy, and demographic shifts—will continue to influence property investment opportunities.

Landlords who proactively address compliance requirements are best positioned to manage risk while benefiting from market growth

Nick Candy didn’t start as a real estate mogul—he was an accountant who admits he “wasn’t very good at it.” 😅

But in 1995, armed with a £6,000 loan from his grandmother, Nick and his brother Christian bought their first flat in Fulham.

That modest start sparked a property empire.

Their big break came with One Hyde Park. In 2006, they transformed a £150 million Knightsbridge site into a luxury landmark, selling one flat for £140 million.

In 2014. Nick joked: We didn’t just sell apartments; we sold lifestyles.

The secret to their success?

Relentless discipline. They scaled strategically, focusing on London’s priciest neighbourhoods and building a brand synonymous with luxury. Nick’s mantra is “Buy, refurbish, repeat.”

Did he face challenges? Yes.

But Nick says:

Today, Nick’s a symbol of property success, turning £6,000 into a billion pound empire. His advice? “If you’re not dreaming big, you’re not dreaming at all.”

That's it for this week folks. Each week we'll cover strategies, updates and insights to help you succeed in real estate. We love this stuff!

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