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This is Chubby Wallet. The newsletter that teaches you how to profit from property trends before they go mainstream..

Here's what’s in store..

• New numbers shows lower UK property listings

• Sales data reflects market resilience

• The case for cheaper mortgages ahead

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

LISTINGS OVERVIEW

New data shows lower property listings

Housing listings are starting to cool as 2025 winds down. According to data from Chris Watkin via Property Industry Eye, new listings fell to 32.7k last week, down 1,700 from the week before.

The details:

• 32.7k new properties hit the market last week, 1,700 fewer than the week before.

• Year-to-date: Roughly 1.44 million homes have been listed in 2025 — 10.2% higher than the nine-year average (though 2020’s disrupted figures skew comparisons).

• Trend vs. 2024: The pace has moderated to just 2.2% above last year’s level, after running 6–7% higher earlier in the year.

• Week 40 comparison: Listings were 7.8% below the same week in 2024 and nearly identical to 2023 — but still well ahead of pre-pandemic averages.

• Stock dynamics: Listings continue to outstrip sales, with Watkin noting that all eyes should remain on the withdrawal rate as unsold stock builds.

Why It Matters

The market is shifting from overperformance to balance. Listings are high, but pricing pressure is growing as sellers adapt to buyers' choices. The rest of 2025 depends on how quickly unsold stock is removed and how motivated sellers become.

SALES AND STOCK LEVELS

24.8k Homes sold subject to contract last week

Sales currently are in line with seasonal averages.. Last week, 24.8k homes sold subject to contract (SSTC) matching the nine-year Week 40 average. SSTCs are performing better than both 2024 and pre-pandemic levels, while total stock remains close to its recent high.

The details

• Average price (sold STC): £336.54 per sq ft in September, down from £338.78 in August and £346.45 in June.

  • That’s a 2.9% decline from June to September.

• Fall-throughs: 25.3% — slightly above the long-term average of 24.2%, but still stable week-to-week.

• Net sales: 18.5k, up 4.3% YoY and 10% above 2017–19 averages, only 400 behind 2022 — on track for 2025 to outperform 2022’s totals given the weak final quarter that year.

• The nine-year Week 40 net sales average is 18.2k, keeping this year just ahead of trend.

Why It Matters

The market appears steady and functional, neither overheated nor in decline. Sales volumes align with long-term norms, stock levels are high but stable, and modest pricing adjustments are beginning to emerge. Transaction confidence seems stronger than in 2024, although higher inventory levels are keeping sellers grounded as we approach November

INTEREST RATES UPDATE

FINANCE AND MORTGAGES

Mortgages to ease as UK bond rates drop

UK government bond interest rates fell last week by approximately 0.15% helped by lower US Treasury rates and an unexpected rise in US unemployment; indicating that borrowing is becoming a bit cheaper and financial markets are stabilising.

The Details:

• 5-year gilt: Dropped from 4.13% to 3.98%. Lower government bond rates can make mortgages slightly cheaper for buyers locking in shorter-term deals.

• 5-year swap: Ended at 3.62%, down from last month and last year. (A swap is a financial contract that lets lenders lock in borrowing costs) Lower swap rates often mean cheaper fixed-rate mortgages for homeowners and developers.

• 30-year gilt: Fell to 5.34%. Long-term borrowing costs are lower, which can influence rates on bigger or longer-term property loans.

Why it matters

Lower gilt and swap rates provide a small boost for mortgage pricing. Currently, new mortgage debt is priced around 5.6% when including fees. This week’s changes don’t signal a big shift yet, but they bring some rare good news for borrowers. They suggest that funding costs might be moving towards a more sustainable level.

That's it for this week folks. Each week we'll cover strategies, updates and insights to help you succeed in real estate. We love this stuff!

If you Have questions or just want to chat, We want to hear it.

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