How to make money from Trump's tarrifs

Think of prime London

Author

Chubby Wallet
April 10, 2025

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Here's what’s in store..

  • Uk house prices fall in March

  • Update on the renters reform act

  • Mortgage rates fall

  • Seller profits drop below £100k

  • The Nigerian who bought Gatwick

UK house prices fell unexpectedly in March, defying analyst forecasts, as the stamp duty holiday came to an end.

According to the FT, the average price dropped 0.5% month-on-month to £296,699—marking the second consecutive decline—while annual growth held steady at 2.8%.

The slowdown comes amid shifting mortgage rate expectations, influenced by global market reactions to new US tariffs.

Source: Halifax, Nationwide

Why It Matters

The dip reflects a return to normalcy after a January surge driven by buyers rushing to beat the March stamp duty deadline.

With affordability pressures still lingering, the market’s trajectory now hinges on borrowing costs and supply constraints.

Key Drivers

  • Stamp duty shift: Purchases completed after April 1 now face higher levies, with first-time buyer thresholds dropping from £425,000 to £300,000.

  • Mortgage rate uncertainty: Global swap rates fell after US tariff announcements, potentially easing fixed-rate deals. One broker predicts five-year fixes could fall below 4%.

Stakeholder Views

  • Halifax’s Amanda Bryden: “Expects a "modest rise" in prices later this year, supported by anticipated BoE rate cuts and wage growth—but warns of persistent challenges from high borrowing costs and limited inventory.”

  • Broker Riz Malik: “Argues lower borrowing costs could "reverse the decline" by boosting buyer confidence.”

  • Capital Economics’ Ashley Webb: “Cautions lenders may delay passing on rate cuts until US tariff impacts stabilize.”

Regional Divergence

  • Northern Ireland: Led annual growth at 6.6% (£206,620 avg).

  • London: Slowest growth (1.1%) but remains the priciest (£543,370 avg).

Broader Context

The decline follows Nationwide’s report of stalled prices and a slight drop in BoE mortgage approvals earlier this year.

With swap rate fluctuations and economic uncertainty in play, the market’s near-term direction remains finely balanced.

Below is a checklist of all the new requirements that landlords will need to comply with before they let a property after the Renters’ Rights Bill is fully in force.

The checklist shows what is new and what hasn’t changed for new tenancies

Renters right act checklist (RRA)

Requirement

Current State

New Rule Under RRA

Penalties for Non-Compliance

Register property on PRS Landlord Database

Not required

Mandatory

Up to £40,000 fine

Register as a landlord on PRS Landlord Database

Not required

Mandatory

Up to £40,000 fine

Register with PRS Landlord Ombudsman

Not required

Mandatory

Up to £40,000 fine + rent repayment order

Property meets PRS Decent Homes Standard

Applies only to social housing

Mandatory for all PRS properties

As per HHSRS penalties

Create fixed-term tenancy

Allowed

Banned

Up to £40,000 fine

Tenant notice to quit

1 month (aligned with rental period)

2 months (aligned with rental period)

N/A

State “proposed rent” in listing

Optional

Mandatory

Up to £40,000 fine

Frequency of rent payments

Any frequency permitted

Maximum monthly payments only

N/A

Accept offers above proposed rent

Allowed

Banned

N/A

Adjust rent payment date (longer first month)

Allowed

Banned (unenforceable post-tenancy)

No penalty if invoiced after signing

Accept rent payments in advance

Allowed

Banned before tenancy starts (TFA 2019 breach)

Penalty if pre-tenancy

Rent review clause in tenancy

Allowed

Banned

N/A

Change rent via addendum

Allowed

Only valid after Section 13 notice

N/A

Automatically refuse benefit claimants (e.g., “No DSS”)

Allowed (with caveats)

Banned (income assessments permitted)

Up to £40,000 fine

Automatically refuse applicants with families

Allowed (with caveats)

Banned (unless justified proportionality)

Up to £40,000 fine

Evict without specific grounds (Section 21)

Allowed

Banned (Section 8 only)

Up to £40,000 fine

Tenant right to keep pets (if reasonable)

Not guaranteed

Landlord must justify refusal

N/A

Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement shocked global markets—but UK homeowners might actually have something to cheer about.

In the days since, financial markets have priced in BoE rate cuts, sending sonia swap rates (the hidden engine behind mortgage pricing) into freefall.

The result?

Lenders are starting to slash fixed rates, with more cuts likely on the way.

Source: SPF Private Clients

Why It Matters

With inflation finally cooling and recession risks rising, the BoE is now expected to cut rates three more times this year—potentially dropping them to 3.75% from today’s 4.5%.

For millions on variable rates or coming off fixed deals, this could mean serious relief. But there’s a twist: cheaper mortgages might not be the economic win they seem.

How This Works

  • Sonia Swaps Rule Everything: These interbank rates (now nosediving) dictate where lenders set fixed mortgages. Five-year swaps have dropped 0.34 percentage points since Trump’s tariffs hit.

  • First Domino Falls: MPowered Mortgages just cut rates across its fixed deals, with its cheapest two-year offer now at 4.05% (if you’ve got a 40% deposit). Others are expected to follow.

  • The Silver Lining? Brokers predict sub-4% fixes could return within weeks—if swaps stay low.

The Trade-offs

  • Recession Fears: Markets are pricing in cuts because growth looks shaky. Cheaper mortgages won’t help if jobs start vanishing.

  • Lender Caution: As one broker put it, banks are “waiting to see if this sticks” before going all-in on cuts.

  • House Prices: Halifax’s latest dip suggests demand is fragile. Lower rates might reignite bidding wars… or just paper over deeper cracks.

Who wins (and who doesn’t)

  • First-time buyers: Sub-4% rates would be a lifeline—if they can still afford deposits.

  • Remortgagers: The 1.6M people renewing deals this year could dodge the worst of the pain.

  • Savings accounts: RIP to decent returns.

Final thoughts

This could be the start of a much-needed correction—or just another false dawn for squeezed borrowers.

One thing’s clear: the BoE’s next move will hinge less on inflation and more on whether the US and UK tip into recession.

Donald Trump’s trade war 2.0 is looming, and the UK property market is caught in the crossfire.

With new tariffs threatening everything from steel imports to financial services, investors are scrambling to analyze the fallout.

Why it matters

According to City AM, the UK’s GDP growth is already on thin ice, with forecasts slashed to 0.5–0.8% if tariffs hold.

Our take is that a "stalemate" scenario is most likely to play out —where Tariffs hold steady at 10% baseline + 25% on autos/steel, but no further escalation, and the BoE cuts rates 2–3 times to prop up growth, keeping borrowing costs in check.

Investor confidence could also take a hit, delaying big-ticket commercial deals and regional housing transactions.

Property market impacts

  •  Prime London Residential – Weak GBP lures foreign buyers; safe-haven demand holds.

  • Regional Housing (Midlands/North) – Manufacturing slowdown = softer prices.

  • Office & Development – Uncertainty stalls leasing; construction costs bite.

  • Logistics & BTR (Build-to-Rent) – Mixed outlook: e-commerce demand vs. weaker consumer spending.

Investor Playbook

  • Buy Defensive: Trophy London assets and core urban BTR.

  • Watch for Distress: Regional BTL and secondary offices may see fire sales.

  • Pause Speculative Development: Margins are too thin with tariff-driven input costs.

  • Refinance Strategically: Falling rates create debt opportunities.

The Wildcard

If tariffs spread to services, London’s financial-sector-driven property demand could tank.

But if the UK secures carve-out deals in construction inputs (steel/timber), developers and logistics players might get a lifeline.

The Big question

If this becomes an all out global trade war - will the UK market suffer heavily?

In the worst scenario, construction costs go up, housing supply drops and resi rents rise due to undersupply and only prime London thrives by being a wealth hedge.

Investors should plan for a grind, not a crash. Target cashflow-heavy assets, avoid regional exposure, and keep powder dry for distress.

And maybe hope Trump’s Twitter fingers stay off the "tariff" button...

When most people think of airports, they think of delays. Adebayo Ogunlesi thinks of deals.

In 2009, while the world reeled from financial collapse, Ogunlesi pulled off what would become one of the boldest infrastructure acquisitions in European history: the £1.455 billion purchase of London Gatwick Airport.

A Nigerian dealmaker, Ogunlesi didn’t just buy an airport—he rewrote the rules of global infrastructure investing.

Career Timeline

  • From Courtroom to Boardroom 1980–1981: Clerked for U.S. Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall.

  • Early 1980s: Joined Cravath, Swaine & Moore as a corporate attorney.

  • 1983: Jumped into investment banking at First Boston—first deal: a Nigerian gas project.

  • 1997–2002: Headed Credit Suisse First Boston’s Global Energy Group, managing megadeals across five continents.

  • 2002: Became Global Head of CSFB’s Investment Banking Division and joined the Executive Board.

  • 2004–2006: Rose to Executive Vice Chairman and Chief Client Officer.

  • July 2006: Founded Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP)—a bold pivot into infrastructure PE with GE and Credit Suisse as backers.

  • 2006–2018: Bought London City Airport, Gatwick, Edinburgh, and Italy’s NVT high-speed rail—transforming neglected assets into high-performing titans.

  • 2024: BlackRock acquires GIP in a landmark $12.5B deal—Ogunlesi joins the world's largest asset manager.

Playbook of a Master Strategist

  1. See Infrastructure as Opportunity, Not Overhead While others ran from capital-intensive assets, Ogunlesi ran toward them.

    He understood that airports, rail systems, and utilities weren’t liabilities—they were undervalued cash-flow machines with monopoly-like dynamics.

“If it’s critical and complicated, I’m interested. Complexity creates opportunity.”

  1. Think Global, Act Surgical GIP didn’t just buy assets—it optimized them. From re-engineering airport operations to renegotiating contracts, Ogunlesi’s team focused on unlocking value others missed.

  2. Build a Reputation, Not Just a Resume His Supreme Court clerkship and Wall Street pedigree gave him credibility. But it was his ability to speak the language of regulators, financiers, and engineers alike that made him a unicorn in the space.

  3. Play Long-Term Games Ogunlesi resisted short-termism. He raised billions to hold and improve assets, not flip them. This made GIP attractive to pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and eventually, BlackRock.

🗣️ Mindset in His Own Words

“I don’t chase hype. I chase value.”

“Infrastructure is the backbone of civilization. Owning it is owning the future.”

“You win big when you understand what others undervalue—and why.”

Bayo Ogunlesi

The Quiet Kingmaker of Global Infrastructure

Adebayo Ogunlesi’s rise is not just a personal triumph—it’s a blueprint for bold, unconventional thinking.

While most private equity players fought for software startups and flashy IPOs, Ogunlesi dug deep into the real economy. Airports. Rail lines. Pipelines. He built an empire around what others ignored.

That's it for this week folks. Each week we'll cover strategies, updates and insights to help you succeed in real estate. We love this stuff!

If you Have questions or just want to chat, We want to hear it.

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